2026 FIFA WORLD CUP — USA / CANADA / MEXICO

AI Prediction Engine

48 Teams · 104 Matches · 5-Factor Model

FINAL PREDICTION

FRANCE
Runner-up: BRAZIL · 3rd: ARGENTINA · 4th: SPAIN
↓ Explore the full prediction below ↓

TEAM STRENGTH FORMULA

S = 0.30×FIFA + 0.25×Value + 0.20×History + 0.15×Form + 0.10×Age
Each factor normalized to 0-100 scale before weighting

FIFA Ranking Score 30%

Official FIFA ranking converted to 0-100 via exponential decay:
score = 100 × e^(-rank/20)

Squad Market Value 25%

Transfermarkt total squad valuation (EUR), normalized:
score = min(100, value / 15M)

World Cup Pedigree 20%

Historical WC performance with recency weighting:
Champion=12, Final=8, Semi=5, QF=3, R16=1.5

Recent Form 15%

Win rate over last 20 internationals, weighted by opponent quality

Squad Age Profile 10%

Optimal peak window is 25-29. Penalty for inexperience or aging:
score = max(0, 100 - |avgAge - 27| × 12)

MATCH SIMULATION ENGINE

1. strDiff = (S_home + 3) - S_away
2. lambda_H = 1.4 × (1 + strDiff/200) — Poisson expected goals
3. P(scoreline) = Poisson(lambda_H) × Poisson(lambda_A)
4. predicted = argmax P(h,a) over 0≤h,a≤5
5. upset = rand() < 0.18 ? swap result : keep

Probability Model

Poisson CDF

Gold standard for football score prediction

Score Output

6×6 Matrix

Joint probability for 0-0 through 5-5

Chaos Factor

18% Upset

Because football is beautifully unpredictable

Knockout Bonus

+5 Stronger

Big-game DNA matters in elimination

Top 2 from each group + 8 best 3rd-place teams advance to Round of 32
★

FRANCE

3 — 2

BRAZIL

Mbappe brace + Tchouameni long-range screamer seal Les Bleus' 3rd World Cup title

FINAL GOALS

104
Total Matches
48
Teams
—
Total Goals
—
Goals / Match

GOLDEN BOOT